How hard can it be?
by John Curnow, Sail-World.com AUS Editor 9 Sep 10:00 NZST
Home page hero - PredictWind and the big show © PredictWind
He had an idea. It seemed like a good plan at the time. Fifteen years on, and now there are 40 staff making it just so (BTW, many of whom are former RTW crew). Recently, the big show began in earnest, and this mob are right there on the home page. Pretty cool in anyone's language, and you don't get to be there unless you're good. Really good.
So PredictWind may have been the official weather supplier for the last Cup in Auckland, but this time really is a coming-of-age event, and one their Founder, Jon Bilger, is justifiably proud of. "PredictWind was born out of the America's Cup, and the three challenges over 10 years that I did with Alinghi. The original genesis came from the one notion that if we could actually make this technology available to the average sailor, then it would be just a massive help to them," said Bilger.
"Of course, we found out that there is a lot to creating the accurate forecast business, let alone delivering the best user interface that is simple and accessible across all the operating systems, and so it is a very complicated machine with lots of moving parts, that's for sure."
"We knew that Pete and Blair (Burling and Tuke) were using our tools, but we just didn't know that the other America's Cup skippers were also active PredictWind users. So we emailed them, asking if they had anything nice to say about us, and the first to come back was Jimmy Spithill, who gave us this amazing testimonial. Sir Ben Ainslie also gave us a big thumbs up. We ended up with great testimonials from basically every single America's Cup skipper in the event, which was pretty amazing."
There were 12 weather stations set up for Auckland, and there are six dedicated stations this time for Barcelona. This time they have gone further, by putting webcams out there that look over the course, and created the PredictWind Weather Centre, which is what adorns the AC website. It has the weather for the events, day-by-day, for the next seven days, and a personalised forecast for the current day from one of PredictWind's own Meteorologists. In addition to the actual observations from the six stations that have been installed, there is also a course overlay, straight from Race Management once it has been set. Additionally, there is also a retrospective aspect, where you can go back and see previous races and the conditions they faced, and who won, of course.
"So, the race weather section is actually our page embedded into their site, which is massive, and we are very fortunate to be in that position. You're getting the best information about the weather all in one place, all on the one page. The team here has done an amazing job, and it is a really cool outcome."
In an earlier Editorial, From the Olympics to ocean passages, we saw how PredictWind had placed a high-resolution, wind drive tidal overlay into their data, but of course, this won't be needed this time, due to the speed of the craft. For them, it is all about wind, wind, wind! There will, however, be the three ocean current models for the Med on display, and these are the ones to be found throughout the entire PredictWind sphere.
"For me, it is a real thrill to see the top sailors getting really good value out of PredictWind, and to rate it so highly. After listening to their own meteorologists, they then pull out PredictWind and compare it all, which is just great. It's a long, long way from everyone looking at a static isobar chart printed in the local newspaper, and going, 'What do you think?' Seeing it used by every team is not only wonderful, but it also adds to future advancements, by virtue of their feedback."
Just like F1, the advancements seen there have filtered down as far as a budget price shopping trolley, and it is no different here. Just like the AC craft themselves, advancement through tech is critical. Ponder the AC75 against a 12 Metre, or even 'America' herself! Quite simply, the more PredictWind does in the rarefied airs of the AC, the better it is for everyone. If you're racing it is all about pace, and if you are cruising it is all about safety. Yes, you still need to have your head out of the companionway hatch, but if you are alerted to the potential for certain things to occur, then you may be faster on the draw to actually find it, which is win/win/win, all day long.
It's always in the detail!
Unsure about all of that? Well, 15 years ago when Jon started, 1km resolution was unheard of. Now look at it... Equally, why take just one prediction, when you can compare and contrast against five? Get all those ducks to line up, and you would have to build a high level of confidence accordingly.
There is more awareness around extreme weather events than ever before. The Med may be considered benign most of the time, but it has always had gnarly edges lurking behind its amazing colour and minimal tidal range. PredictWind already has the GMDSS (global marine distress and safety system for mariners) overlay on its basic version (just USD29 per annum) and upwards, which is text-based intel on things like thunderstorms and waterspouts. Thing is, you have to be looking at the screen to catch it.
So then, what if those extreme weather alerts that are applicable to you could be sent to your phone in real time? Well, standby, because it will be with us before you know it. Would not want to steal their thunder, even though I just have, but how's that for having yet another arrow in your quiver?
"Just like double membrane sails, T-Foils and all the rest, we're constantly innovating, developing new technology, and that's what keeps me excited about doing what we do," said Bilger.
You could well have been burned at the stake back in the day for suggesting that we would be enjoying what we have now in terms of predictions and observations, but it means there is a higher level of certainty around racing, which has to be good when you consider how long it takes to set everything up in the first place, and really, how narrow the racing band is.
Now we gather real time data, compare that against multiple models, as opposed to one, let alone one reprinted from a vague notion at least 12 hours prior. One word comes to mind. Confidence. Now if it is all still moving around, then you can be confident that it is still very much stick your head out the companionway hatch, again, with vigilance the driving motivator. Did someone just say 7Ps???
Now once the Cup is done it is time for the Vendée Globe once more. Many teams already use PredictWind, but of course, cloud routing is not allowed, which adds a different dimension to that game when you're solo and trying to get around the globe as fast as you can. None the less, PredictWind is in there with a proposal to offer a similar public face to that of the AC. "Yes. I am biased, but our technology is certainly the best," offered Bilger.
Digital Lighthouse Keepers
So out of all of this, does it indeed mean PredictWind is not a weather company, but rather a safety company? Well, if you take the buggy whip manufacturer who refused to become an upholsterer as the horse-drawn cart gave way to the automobile, and suffered the same ultimate fate as the original horsepower machines, then the answer is, yes.
If you have to be fast, then you need the kind of pace only the best tech can offer, and if you have to get from A to B, then you have to be safe. Whether you're a carbon flyer, or a production cruising boat, this applies, as everything is different. Hull forms, sail plans, comms, and even the amount of time you have to be in anchorages is all way different to 10, 20 and many years ago.
In some ways, this makes PredictWind the kind of 24/7 digital Lighthouse Keepers, and with that comes the requirement to be reliable, and Bilger is very proud of their 99.9% strike rate, in terms of outages.
"These AC75 machines are just amazing. It's like watching a spaceship race. It's just unreal. The technology, the speed, and the precision of these boats is really something else," said Bilger. You cannot help but draw the parallels between the AC and his own company's offering, as well as seeing where his personal drive stems from...
OK. There it is. There is so much more on the group's websites for you. Simply use the search field, or 'edition' pull-down menu up the top on the right of the masthead to find it all. Please enjoy your yachting, stay safe, and thanks for tuning into Sail-World.com
John Curnow
Sail-World.com AUS Editor