From the Olympics to ocean passages
by John Curnow, Sail-World.com AUS Editor 30 Jul 10:00 NZST
2024 Olympics - Currents around the Frioul Archipelago © Predictwind.com
Yes. The best there are on the water use PredictWind. However, it is not just limited to the Olympic Classes. Ocean racers and cruisers, as well as powerboat passage makers, comprise the 1.5 million users of the renowned system, and there is good reason why.
Since 2010, PredictWind has literally just grown and grown, and Marseille just underscores the importance of good data as part of your overall racecraft. If you are fortunate enough to spend time with a national team, you will get to understand just how much they hone their skill of analysing data. "The attention to detail; the kind of obsession with it, really does make it a different game at that level, that's for sure," says Jon Bilger, PredictWind's founder.
In this sort of game, being accurate is just not negotiable. Whether a fleet heads out or stays ashore depending on the accuracy of the information relative to conditions can make and break campaigns and gear, let alone humans.
Jon was part of the New Zealand 470 crew in 1992 (Barcelona), and since then has become a qualified engineer, sailed the America's Cup, and created this most useful of tools for mariners. "Your biggest weapon on the water is obviously your eyeballs. They're going to be your number one tool for picking the correct side of the course. The high resolution we provide is just not as good as the human eye."
"However, PredictWind will give you an idea of the trend for the day; is it increasing/decreasing, maybe going left or right. I am still surprised and delighted at all the testimonies we get from Olympians who have won Gold, as to how much they have really relied on our services. Most of them are on our basic package (which is just USD29 p.a.) and it highlights just how valuable a good weather forecast is so that you know the trends of the day."
"The Olympians use PredictWind the night before, then in the morning of racing, and of course the coaches have it out on the water with them to ensure they stay in touch with the grand overview that it supplies. It helps to make sure their minds are set."
"As Marseille is in the Mediterranean, where the tidal range is around 20cm, there is no real tidal flow, but we have got a model which is wind driven. It's been created specifically for the Olympics, and has 100m resolution over the different course areas. Interestingly, there can be quite a lot of current, up to one and a half knots, across the course area. It's a big variation, and with the courses overlaid on the charts, you can see exactly where it all occurs.
"It's pretty cool, and it's the wind that can make the difference in density of the water column. You can get this upwelling of cold water, which is why you get this quite strong current after 20 or 30 knots of wind. There are also lots of nooks and crags in the coastline that add to it all as well. Between Frioul Archipelago and the mainland, you get a Nor'wester, and then you can really see the current accelerate between the islands."
"Of course this has implications for the start, and the Olympics is not the place for an OCS, as well as choosing your lay lines. That it cannot be there one day, and running pretty swiftly the next could catch you off guard. Given how competitive many of the fleets are, it could have major ramifications to the final placings. Being aware of it and looking for it could work distinctly to your advantage."
For what it's worth, Jon's two daughters, Lucy and Stella, have been training with the New Zealand Olympic team as they progress in the iQFOiL and Kite disciplines. Yes, the family does use the product, and as Bilger says, "It's been a great opportunity for them, and they are learning a huge amount."
The other one
Also happening this year is the America's Cup, for which PredictWind is actually the official supplier of all things weather. Like the Olympics, this is a place for accuracy, not stabs in the dark. Now Jon is no mere spectator when it comes to the AC, and endured what we might call the inevitable 'lawyer times', as well. "The AC75s are certainly fast and exciting, that's for sure. Having the Youth and Women's events as part of it all is just fantastic. It's going to be quite a spectacle," said Bilger.
Take a wider view now...
So, there was a time when there was just the companionway hatch, and maybe some sixth sense. Forecasts gave you a picture before you left. The radio added to that immeasurably, by virtue of updates. Weather fax made it graphical, but it was a snapshot, none the less. Routing arrived, and the all-important GRIB files to download, but HF is not really the place for that, satcom was expensive, and did not look like it does today. Towing an ethernet cable was just plain daft...
Then multiple models were accessible, and yet even more data from tidal flows to lightning strikes gave an even better picture. Alerts for wind against tide were more than handy, and it was good that all of this could be done on land, so that those at sea only had to access information pertinent to their route, and not perform the MIPS required to get there. Having a Cray computer at sea just is not going to work from a mass/cooling/power consumption POV.
At that juncture, the era of PredictWind no longer being solely for propeller heads, and effectively becoming your Sailing Master, had arrived.
Like so many things, boating is edging closer and closer to how you would operate a car, or navigate and have situational awareness via your phone. All the while, do remember that the sea loves to be in a total state of flux.
Cruising
Way back when, if you didn't show up with half your gear beaten to a pulp and everything saturated, you just hadn't made it a true passage, and of course these days that's not the idea at all. It's more like stay at the anchorage as long as you can, and then skedaddle as fast as you are able to the next one sort of thing.
PredictWind is the darling of the cruising market, no matter whether you have been at it for years, or just recently took your inspiration from YouTube. The former are well aware of how it was the tech-oriented racing Navigator that made routing possible for them, and that there is more than one model to look at when it comes to weather, and that is always the best way to make your assessments.
Today, the routing takes in vessel type, polars, along with tidal and ocean currents, as well as wave action, to say nothing of wind and the many nuances of all things meteorological. In computing terms, all of the data crunching is done in what is called Millions of Instructions Per Second (MIPS), and it is part of the reason PredictWind 'lives' inside of Amazon Web Services. It is what allows you to do your routing from the cockpit lounge via tablet.
More importantly, unlike using the GRIB files yourself and saying we should be here by then and the weather will be this at that time, it knows exactly where you'll be, what you'll be experiencing, and can animate the whole journey for you.
"PredictWind weather routing should be your primary source of getting weather data. It's all done in a very compressed sort of small file size, and will have summarised everything from wind to wave to current, and also now any lightning (not good for electronics or modern Diesels), potential squalls and thunderstorms, and also wind against tide, which is often the most ghastly of conditions to avoid at all costs.
"We have 90 percent of the coastlines of the world covered by our tidal flows. All of these warnings inside our system are just so valuable, and they all show up as exclamation marks on your route, so it is not like you have to go into sub-menus to find them.
"It is all there. You just have to look, and I am amazed at how accurate some of the new ways for predicting things like lightning can actually be. On a recent delivery, I had that very reminder," said Bilger, by way of making his own exclamation mark.
"Just coming online now, in addition to the ECMWF lightning forecast, is the GMDSS actual strike record in real time, for the whole world. This is enough to help you decide to continue on, or indeed turn around and head back to whence you cometh to avoid these sorts of cells.
"One of the big things we have done over our journey is to demystify meteorological speak, and graphically display the things we can to help you make sense of it all, rather than having to plot different scenarios and make estimations as to which way a cyclone may or may not head. We use AI to actually reverse engineer all the text that forms these notes and warnings into a graphical element and then display that on your routing."
"I really think this is a bit of a gamechanger, actually, and way more accurate than anything we have had before. A meteorologist warning, an actual model forecast, as well as real time data adds great security and safety, and you don't have to be a propeller head to work it out!
"So, we try to make the software as simple as we can, and we realise a lot of our customers are not tech savvy. We have fifteen support staff that you access via email or phone, and we can talk you through any problems you have. Interestingly, four of these are former Volvo Ocean Race competitors. Support is a big thing for us, and it definitely goes a long way, for sure. It also adds another level of safety to it all."
Part of this is not requiring people to learn a whole new language, and a whole new setup. If something is not too different from their car, then they can get their head around it.
It is no longer simply forecast, but overlay of real time, and it is a generation or two away from GRIB files taking hours to come down over the HF, to only then be pushed back through the laptop to give an idea, not an actuality. High-speed satellite internet adds to the here and now, which in turn brings forth better decisions and changes to route or destination where/when necessary.
"Our mission is to make accurate weather accessible for anyone, anywhere. Everything we do is trying to make accurate things appear easy, and the complex become simple. Rather than doing a weather course, you're probably better off knowing how to use our software. When I started PredictWind I thought, 'How hard can it be?' Well, it is pretty hard knowing the weather, but the hardest part is making it easy and accessible."
"I am proud that we sort of introduced weather routing, but it never stopped there, or remains constant even now. There is more to come, and you should never forget that this is not taking over. It is merely aiding and assisting. It is not autonomous driving.
"We talk to a huge number of our clients, and at least 50% would be new to sailing and passage making. Safety is probably our biggest drawcard. We are not nurse-maiding them, but they all say how wonderful it is to have our guidance. What we do is a bit like the sextant being compared to GPS.
"I talked with one of New Zealand's most famous navigators a while ago now and asked him, 'What happens if your GPS breaks down? I have another GPS. Yeah. And when that breaks down. No problem. I have four GPSs on board my boat. I never need a sextant any more."
It is important not to lose sight of the need for basic seamanship and repair skills, however. You either get these over time, or you need to do courses. This is the ocean, after all, not your average neighbourhood ashore. In this way, PredictWind is probably a bit more like a governess than anything else. Steering and nurturing from a standpoint of knowledge.
"One thing we do find is that people tell us that PredictWind gives the same or better than the onshore routers they are paying for," added Bilger. "Thing is, our stuff is available 24/7."
Powerboats
It is always easy to spot the former yachtie who became a powerboater. It's the wind gear proudly mounted on a mast. Old habits die hard, and it does speak to an innate desire to know one's environment as best you can. PredictWind's powerboat offering was relaunched a year ago, having been taken out of the bowels of their sailing offering, and placed right on the front of the home page with its own menu.
Some additional benefits were also added, and rapidly, it has become as much of a darling with the passage makers, as the sailing version has with the cruisers.
"We're pretty excited about our weather routing tool for powerboaters, because I think it is totally unique. You can actually model your specific boat for wave conditions and economy. Naturally it is waves that interest powerboaters more than wind, but the two are inexorably linked. Of course, the main variable to account for here is the vertical acceleration, which is what really causes seasickness."
In the powerboat offering, owners place in LOA, beam, draft, cruising speed, RPM, and displacement, along with vessel type (mono or multihull) and then the system addresses every single wave condition as it pertains to roll and vertical acceleration. It not only becomes about comfort on board, but nearly as importantly, minimising drag and therefore increasing efficiency gets played out.
The result? The most comfortable, and the most efficient route available, and is that not what it is all about? It is also the best available elapsed time, as well.
"Obviously with the routing you're giving the forecast, and the optimal route, but comparing the route whether you leave on day one, two, three, or four of your trip also comes into play. This sort of departure planning is new and very much appreciated to date. Naturally, if you leave on day three, but it ends up being half a day faster, well who isn't going to opt for that.
"Plus, they won't have the roll or slamming that will have been very much present with the earlier departures, and they will have burned less fuel for the pleasure."
"This little summary ties in with the best form of seamanship, which is not to get caught out in bad weather in the first place. Inside the myriad of calculations that go into all of this is not only the wind and waves, but also the primary swell, secondary swell, and tertiary swell, which can come from different directions, as it all pertains to your vessel.
"If the primary swell is three or four metres high with a long period, that's a dream, but if you get even a two- or three-metre-high secondary swell of a very similar size and it's coming from a different angle, well it can be very, very nasty. It's all presented to you simply with a Google Maps interface."
"Your whole trip is displayed; where you're going to have which wind speed, from what direction, then the swell, and what its effects are going to be. It is marriage saving material. Slamming and rolling are not fun, and at least you will know where it is to happen, and even more importantly, how long it will last."
There simply is no excuse for being in the wrong part of the sea at the wrong time, and who wants to have to take all the vases down, stow all the books, and pack the galley away completely?
Predicting the full seven days is tough, but if all the models are saying the same thing, then you can have a distinct level of confidence that you'll get what you're seeing in your routing. But if the ECMWF, Spire, UK Met Office and so forth are all saying different things, do not doctor shop and go with the one you like.
Be aware. Be open. And most of all, be vigilant. With today's tech and access via Starlink and so forth, being up to date is just that. On point!
OK. There it is. There is so much more on the group's websites for you. Simply use the search field, or 'edition' pull-down menu up the top on the right of the masthead to find it all. Please enjoy your yachting, stay safe, and thanks for tuning into Sail-World.com
John Curnow
Sail-World.com AUS Editor